So say Trump pulls off a narrow reelection this November, who will be elected President in 2024. I know it's hard to predict the electoral future of the US but I have some hypotheses.
Every President since Bill Clinton (1993-2001) has been reelected to a second term. There have surely been some close calls like the 2000 (Bush vs. Gore) and 2004 (Bush vs. Kerry) elections. The 2020 election will be very close, no doubt about it but incumbent presidents since Clinton have always pulled through. The political party in Office has also shifted every 8 years. Clinton was a Democrat, Bush was a Republican, Obama was a Democrat, and Trump is a Republican. So using this pattern in recent US history I predict that a Democrat will be elected in 2024.
Before I continue with 2024 I'll mention my prediction for 2020. I don't think Sanders will get the Democratic nomination. He's just too much of a radical democratic socialist. The Dems will probably go with Biden (who is a moderate, former VP, and leading in the polls currently). For Biden's running mate he has mentioned he wants someone younger than himself, possibly black, and a minority (he has also mentioned possibly picking a Republican but that's doubtful). Given the standards the best fit for him would be California Senator Kamala Harris. She is also very controversial and won't get much of the black vote. In my opinion this will also help Trump with reelection.
Currently the swing states this year are Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. All those together total 102 EVs. Trump won all of those in 2016 so I don't think he will manage to get them all but he has his ways. Arizona becoming more Democratic each year so it may go to Biden. The rest I want to say will go to Trump but I'm not entirely sure. The closest states will probably be Florida and Pennsylvania. So with my prediction of Trump losing only Arizona leaves him with 294 EVs and 243 for Biden/Harris.
So much of 2024 depends on what happens this November. Such as Joe Kennedy III's run for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. His family does have a political dynasty there so it's likely that he wins. That would put him in a position to start a 2024 presidential campaign. Other Democrats I can think of off the top of my head are New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Stacey Abrams of Georgia, possible 2020 Democratic running mate Kamala Harris, Oprah Winfrey, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and Michael Bennett.
For the GOP (Republican Party) in 2024 I see Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Don Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump fighting for the nomination. Pence will probably get in though and lose royally to the Democrats.
By 2024 we might even see a Democratic landslide due to states such as Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina becoming Democratic. Although the Dems will make gains there will also be losses. Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire will probably become Republican sometime in the future. If not in 2024, then later in 2028 or 2032.
Please keep in mind that this is just my opinion and I would like to hear others' thoughts and opinions on this subject.